30 Years of Data: Rising UV Is Driving Melanoma Most in Wealthy, Low-UV Countries
A 2025 analysis of 176 countries reframes who is most at risk as surface UV climbs, and it isn't only the sunniest places.
A 2025 Scientific Reports analysis across 176 countries (1990-2021) found 49 countries with statistically significant correlations between rising surface UV radiation and melanoma risk; North Africa and the Middle East had the highest relative risk (RR 2.17), and Europe saw incidence rise by 3 to 7 new cases per 100,000 people.
The study authors note that the strongest melanoma increases cluster in wealthier, historically lower-UV regions, suggesting that changing exposure patterns and demographics, not just baseline sunshine, shape modern risk.
Questions we get a lot
What did the 2025 global UV and melanoma study find?
Analyzing 176 countries from 1990 to 2021, the study found 49 countries with statistically significant links between rising surface UV radiation and melanoma risk. North Africa and the Middle East showed the highest relative risk at 2.17. Europe's incidence rose by about 3 to 7 new cases per 100,000 people.
Why are wealthy, historically low-UV countries seeing big melanoma jumps?
Populations in these regions often have fair skin with less lifelong UV adaptation, and patterns like vacation sun exposure and tanning can drive risk. As surface UV rises, this combination shows up as steeper incidence increases. The data suggests behavior and demographics matter alongside baseline sunshine.
r/SkincareAddiction: 'I live somewhere cloudy and cold most of the year. Does this study mean I actually need to worry about UV?'